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Preparing for an Influenza Pandemic

by Dr. David Butler-Jones, Chief Public Health Officer of Canada

In recent years, there has been growing concern about the possibility of an influenza pandemic. It can sometimes be difficult to separate fact from speculation given the abundance of information, but most experts agree a global outbreak of influenza will happen sooner or later. For us to be able respond effectively to such an event, governments and individuals need to be prepared.

It is important that individuals understand what pandemic influenza is, and how it differs from seasonal influenza and avian influenza. Human influenza, or “the flu,” is a respiratory illness that spreads easily from person to person, mostly during the winter months. A pandemic is a worldwide outbreak of a disease or virus that affects a large segment of the population.

Every year, millions of Canadians get the flu and approximately 20,000 are hospitalized. On average, an estimated 4,000-8,000 Canadians – mainly seniors and individuals with chronic health conditions – die every year from influenza or influenza-related complications. By contrast, we estimate that between 11,000 and 58,000 Canadians could die during a moderately severe pandemic. So it is important that we maintain perspective: more Canadians die from influenza between pandemics than are likely to die during a pandemic.

An influenza pandemic can occur after a major change takes place in an influenza virus. For instance, wild birds are natural carriers of influenza. They can transmit these avian influenza, or “bird flu,” viruses between themselves, domestic poultry and other animals. One way in which experts believe that pandemic strains of influenza emerge is when human and avian viruses mix, causing a new virus to appear. Since humans have not developed immunity to the new virus it could have the ability to spread very rapidly around the world.

Historically, three or four influenza pandemics occur every century. The last three occurred in 1918-1919, 1957-1958, and then again in 1968-1969. This is why some experts believe we are now overdue for the next pandemic. While it is impossible to predict the timing of the next pandemic, there are many steps we can take, and that we have been taking for some time, to be prepared and to minimize the impact.

First, it is important for individuals and families to know what they can do to prepare. There are simple steps that can help prevent the spread of influenza, pandemic or otherwise. Staying home when you’re sick, sneezing and coughing into a tissue or your sleeve rather than your hands, and washing your hands frequently with soap and water or an alcohol-based sanitizer, are all effective at preventing the spread of influenza. Further, start to think about how your community and family would respond, and consider your family’s emergency plan. For example, have contact information on hand for your physician, know where your local clinic is, and discuss options for childcare. Always  keep in mind that some essential services may be disrupted during a pandemic.

At the federal level, the Public Health Agency of Canada provides leadership and coordination on public health issues, including infectious disease outbreaks in humans. In terms of planning, in order to ensure the best possible level of preparedness, the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector was developed by federal, provincial and territorial governments. This plan guides those in the health sector who are preparing the measures and systems that will be needed to respond to a pandemic -- from monitoring the spread of the virus to responding with vaccines and antiviral drugs.

There are contracts in place that, in the event of a pandemic, would provide for the production of a vaccine for every Canadian. Since this process can take months, Canada also maintains a national stockpile of antiviral medication in order to treat people who need it. Furthermore, since a pandemic is by its nature a global event, Canada is working closely with its international partners to monitor disease outbreaks around the world, and to strengthen the international community’s ability to respond to public health emergencies.

Of course, within Canada , the first and most important line of defence is your local health professional. Your doctor, nurse, or other health service provider will be relied upon to identify and report the first sign of a pandemic. Through his or her local Medical Officer of Health, your local physician is connected to a provincial Chief Medical Health Officer, who in turn has direct contact with me, the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada . This network ties all of Canada together, and connects us internationally with partners like the World Health Organization.

As unlikely as an influenza pandemic may seem, it will be an unavoidable reality at some point in the future. Unlike with previous pandemics, however, we have a strong public health system supported by unprecedented scientific knowledge. And while we cannot predict the severity or timing of a pandemic, its impact can be better managed because of effective planning and preparation.

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